Looking into my crystal ball, I see . . .
1. A Kerry win.
2. A full-court conservative attack on Kerry that, “as Matthew Yglesias notes”:http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/10/the_sea_was_ang.html, will backfire in the long run. The thing to watch out for especially is when bad news comes out of Iraq and they actually have the gall to blame Kerry for it — I’m clenching my teeth already just thinking about it. They will not let up. It will make what they did to Clinton look like a cakewalk.
3. Partly because of this, partly because of a hostile Congress, and partly due to his own limitations, Kerry will not win a second term. He will run against John McCain and lose.
Now, I’ll take Kerry followed by McCain over Bush followed by _whomever_ any day of the week. And my crystal ball has been configured with the assumption that Kerry will be a competent President, but not a great one. Just in case he has some of that “great” potential, though, here’s some advice for him:
Senator Kerry, take advantage of the turmoil in the Republican party that will bubble up after their election loss. There are plenty of conservatives who are beyond fed up with Bush and will have little appetite for attack-dog politics over the next four years. Reach out to them. Be a genuine uniter-not-a-divider when it comes to your Cabinet. Ask Colin Powell to continue to be Secretary of State. You’ll piss off some wingers on your side of the fence, but you will also isolate the wingers on the other side, and it will be easier for people to see their attacks against you for what they are: the frothing at the mouth of the lunatic fringe. If you can pull this off, even if you don’t win a second term, your friend John McCain will have the opportunity to lead a Republican party that’s not an embarrassment to the nation.
18 comments
October 27, 2004 at 8:15 pm
eric
Nate, I’m also seeing a Kerry win, but I’m worried that it’s my own misguided optimism rather than good, empirical data. What can you offer to back up your prediction? Or, like our President, is it more of a gut feeling and less of anything based on facts?
October 27, 2004 at 11:36 pm
nate
Eric: Everyone’s already expecting a surprising increase in voter turnout. There’s also been a big upswing in new voter registration. Both of these factors are poorly accounted for in the current polling models (as I understand it — granted, my understanding here is very limited), and both of these factors tend to favor Kerry. So, as long as the polling CW has a basically even race, or one where they’re within a handful of electoral votes of each other, I assume that the actual result will be in Kerry’s favor.
Plus, I got a gut feeling.
October 28, 2004 at 1:11 am
Joe O
My gut says Kerry win too. Most polls use a greater percentage of republicans than the percentage of republicans in the general public under the theory that republicans typically are more likely to vote. This is fine but it assumes that the voting turnout will follow the traditional pattern. The democrats are reved up this year and the republicans are dispirited. This year’s turnout is going to be much better for the democrats than normal.
I don’t think Kerry will be that bad. He has integrity and he is not incompetent like Bush. With a good economy and good handling of the war on terror he could even win re-election. Kerry followed by McCain wouldn’t be bad for the country either.
The war in Iraq could be Kerry’s downfall. It seems beyond the point that competent leadership can fix things. Kerry will gain new sympathy for Nixon. He is going to inherit a stupid-ass war.
Colin Powell might be a good selection to stay on. He at least tried to make things better.
October 28, 2004 at 7:51 am
Greg
All this “the polls are missing all my voters” talk reminds me a lot of what was coming out of the Dole campaign in ’96. It’s more believable now, because it’s a closer race, but it still seems to be based more on wishful thinking than reality. Of course, I’d love to be proven wrong with the Supreme Court picks our next president in December, but I’m not holding my breath.
President McCain, on the other hand, is pure fantasy. McCain is very popular among people who aren’t, you know, Republicans. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t much like him. This isn’t a bad recipe for winning a general election, but it’s not such a hot strategy in the primaries. He’s the Dick Gephardt of the Republican party, running often and losing early.
So, I think, is Colin Powell remaining Secretary of State after the election, regardless of who wins. Kerry could do worse than to ask him, you’re right, but there’s no way he’d do it.
October 28, 2004 at 9:53 am
Ana
I do think however that McCain believes that if Bush wins the party will support him the next time around. It is not like Cheney or Condi will be running. Frankly he looks miserable whenever he is next to Bush, but somehow doesn’t speak against him, for the good of the party and I believe due to his own ambition. It has made me lose respect for him.
October 28, 2004 at 10:29 am
eric
My reasons for optimism are based mostly on the anger at the hubris and incompetence of this administration. I know a number of Nader voters from last election (one who still has his Dennis Kucinich sign in the front yard) who no longer believe that it doesn’t make a difference who wins. I also know several people who voted for Bush last time (a few who even had Bush/Cheney bumper stickers) who say they’ll never vote for him again…though they may not vote Kerry, either. And I think many communities that felt disenfranchised last election are mobilizing to make their votes count this time.
My last pitch to unhappy Republicans has been this: If Kerry wins, there is no way Hillary runs in 4 years. In 8 years, who knows what her momentum would be, especially if we’re coming off at least one Democratic administration. However, if Bush wins and things continue as they have, consider how much anger there will be against Republicans. Think of how much the likelihood of her winning increases.
October 28, 2004 at 10:58 am
nate
Greg: The big difference between ’96 and ’04 is that there are strong indications that there’s been a significant increase in voter registration and that voter turnout will be way up. That’s enough basis for a bit more optimism for me.
If McCain wants to run, he’s in a very strong position to do so, whatever other Republicans think of him. And while he’s certainly disliked by the Bush camp, I don’t think he’s universally spurned by his partymates by any means. With his reputation and name recognition, and primary contender put up against him is going to have a very tough job.
Ana: I know what you mean about losing respect for McCain for falling into line with the Bush campaign when he obviously has so little respect for the man. I agree. But it’s a good reminder that McCain is a Republican, through and through, and still wants to see his party in power.
Greg: On Colin Powell — you’re right, he probably wouldn’t take it, but asking him as no downside for Kerry.
Eric: Precisely because Hillary is such a polarizing figure, I don’t think she’s a likely contender, though there’s little doubt that she’ll try. It’ll be interesting to see how that struggle in the Democratic party will play out, adn what the Republicans will be like when it does.
October 28, 2004 at 12:27 pm
DAG
I think W is going to win. It makes me sick to my stomach, but I have had this gut feeling for a long time.
For the love of all that is holy, prove me wrong.
October 29, 2004 at 9:53 am
Bill
One interesting aspect to the polling is that since polling services don’t poll the military, the polls usually tend a bit more democrat than they ought to (most career military are republicans). This year, a lot of people in the military who are not getting polled are not career military.
October 29, 2004 at 10:37 am
nate
DAG: I hope to.
Bill: … and informal indications are that those non-career military are going to lean, if not heavily Democratic, then at least more Democratic than soldiers usually do. See the recent entry in the Washington Note.
October 31, 2004 at 9:31 pm
eric
Nate–
I think the Republicans are getting desperate in Michigan. I just got a robo-call that was supposedly from the Kerry camp, but obviously from someone supporting the President. They are trying to ride the coat tails of the anti-gay marriage/civil union ballot proposal that looks like it will pass here. I hope the word gets out on these slime ball tactics. Here’s my best approximation of the phone call:
“When you go to the polls on Tuesday, please vote to legalize gay marriage. Gay marriage is a basic human right, and the only way we can insure it is to vote for John Kerry. John Kerry supports our legal right to gay marriage. His opponent, George W. Bush, will work to outlaw gay marriage. So remember on Tuesday to vote for John Kerry so that we can legalize gay marriage.”
October 31, 2004 at 11:11 pm
Jim Zoetewey
Eric:
I got the same call (and just blogged about it). Political science profs are going to get piles of material for papers on dirty tricks out of this election.
November 1, 2004 at 12:23 pm
Tom
As a registered independent married to a registered independent living in the swing state of Michigan, I find it interesting that we have received at least 15-20 robo-calls from the Bush campaign, to 0 from the Kerry campaign, and at least 20 pieces of mail from the Bush campaign, to 0 from the Kerry campaign. I’m assuming Kerry has ignored conservative West Michigan to focus his efforts on liberal Detroit?
November 1, 2004 at 12:45 pm
nate
Eric, Jim: That’s desperation you smell, on the part of the Republicans.
Tom: I think you’re right — Michigan as a state is swingin’, but not West Michigan from the perspective of the Kerry campaign. The Republicans are pushing there more in a get-out-the-vote way, not a convert-the-undecided way. See the robocalls mentioned in the previous comments.
November 1, 2004 at 1:56 pm
Derek
Nate – Agreed, I will also be very surprised if Bush wins tomorrow. I’ll be reluctantly pulling the lever for Kerry, as (I suspect) will many who voted for Bush in 2000. Here’s hoping for four years of blissful gridlock and fiscal restraint (basically, a repeat of the 90s minus the whole impeachment thing).
November 1, 2004 at 5:52 pm
Bryan
Eric – I read about that on Yahoo news. Here was the actual language which is pretty close to what you stated:
In a recording of a phone call played for The Associated Press, a young woman says: “When you vote this Tuesday remember to legalize gay marriage by supporting John Kerry. We need John Kerry in order to make gay marriage legal for our city. Gay marriage is a right we all want. It’s a basic Democrat principle. It’s time to move forward and be progressive. Without John Kerry, George Bush will stop gay marriage. That’s why we need Kerry. So Tuesday, stand up for gay marriage by supporting John Kerry.”
Campaigning doesn’t get much lower than that folks.
November 2, 2004 at 7:22 pm
Jeff
Some overzealous lad in our state of Wisconsin seems to have taken matters into his own hands by stealing in last night and slashing the tires of 30 vans that the Republicans had rented to ferry voters to the polls this morning. Anything for a good cause, I guess.
November 3, 2004 at 11:06 am
Bryan
Jeff – The Republicans rented vans and not stretch limos?
Your incident properly reflects that there are offenses and transgressions on both sides.